Monday, September 7, 2009

Latest Forecast....

Happy Labor Day, this is Kevin with your North Orange County Surf Forecast effective Monday afternoon. 

Southern California Recap: MONDAY – Small NW windswell continued today and mixed with underlying/background Southern Hemi swell. The better windswell breaks were in the waist high range, with sets to chest high at standout spots. 

Southern California Surf Forecast Outlook:
 Small NW windswell will continue through Tuesday, before dropping off for the middle to second half of the week. Small SW groundswell will also gradually build through mid week. Check the forecast below for further details and the longer range outlool.
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LOCAL NORTH ORANGE COUNTY SURF FORECAST   (Surf sizes are face heights of the front of the waves)
Monday 09/07
Tuesday 09/08
Wednesday 09/09
Thursday 09/10
Friday 09/11
POOR-FAIR
SURF: 1-3 ft - ankle to waist high and poor-fair conditions.
POOR-FAIR
SURF: 1-3 ft - ankle to waist high and poor-fair conditions.
FAIR
SURF: 2-3 ft - knee to waist high and fair conditions.
FAIR
SURF: 2-3 ft.+ - knee to chest high and fair conditions.
FAIR
SURF: 1-3 ft - ankle to waist high and fair conditions.
Small NW windswell/groundswell mix; tiny SW swell
Small NW windswell/groundswell mix and small SW swell; weak eddy conditions possible
SSW swell mixed with fading NW energy; weak eddy conditions possible
Mainly SSW swell with minimal NW energy
Mainly SSW swell with minimal NW energy
TIDES: HUNTINGTON CLIFFS
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/tidegraphics/tidefile_25.png
WIND
5AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_162.png
11AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_200.png
5PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane22_271.png
11PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_242.png
5AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_175.png
11AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_171.png
5PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane16_249.png
11PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_161.png
5AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_193.png
11AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_221.png
5PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane20_272.png
11PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_259.png
5AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_267.png
11AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane22_239.png
5PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane24_274.png
11PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane16_260.png
5AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_223.png
11AM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane12_246.png
5PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane28_275.png
11PM
http://www.surfline.com/surfline/forecasts4/windvanes/windvane18_266.png
WEATHER
http://www.surfline.com/reports/images/dashboard_weather_white/sunny.gif
SUNNY
67 - 75°F
http://www.surfline.com/reports/images/dashboard_weather_white/sunny.gif
SUNNY
68 - 75°F
http://www.surfline.com/reports/images/dashboard_weather_white/sunny.gif
SUNNY
68 - 75°F
http://www.surfline.com/reports/images/dashboard_weather_white/sunny.gif
SUNNY
71 - 79°F
http://www.surfline.com/reports/images/dashboard_weather_white/mostlycloudy.gif
MOSTLY CLOUDY
70 - 80°F
(For the LOLA SURF HEIGHT MODEL, go to the LOLA Forecast Dashboard tab)
TUESDAY: Small NW windswell continues and mixes with a small, gradually building SW swell. Look for soft but peaky 1-2' occasional 3' waves at the better spots. Breaks that really favor the NW windswell are more consistent waist high and even a little better at times. Tide push through the morning may help some. 
Wind: Variable S/SSE wind early between 3-8kts and some morning sickness likely. Afternoon SW to W wind builds 5-10kts, with a decent chance for an evening glass off.
Extended Southern California Surf Forecast Outlook:
WIND/WEATHER SYNOPSIS: A Catalina eddy will continue on Tuesday and likely into Wednesday. That will mean variable southerly wind in the early mornings, primarily for OC, San Diego and possibly the South Bay. Light SW to W wind will develop for the afternoons along with a decent chance for an evening glass-off. 

The most recent forecast charts/models indicate that we could see a weak offshore flow develop by the second half of the week with calm to light offshore wind in the mornings. Moderate westerly flow would then pick up in the afternoons. Stay tuned for updates on this possible development.
 
NORTH PACIFIC SWELL/SURF ACTIVITY: Thanks to continued wind in the outer coastal waters, a small NW windswell will hold through Tuesday. Look for the better NW exposed spots (mainly of San Diego, the South Bay, Ventura and even select breaks of OC) to see peaky, short period waves in the waist high range. Standout breaks even see some plus sets approaching chest high. Those windswell waves will drop sharply for the middle to second half of the week. 

A storm of the Alaskan Gulf recently developed a very steep angled pulse of NW groundswell (over 300 deg+) that was showing on the buoys today, will peak through the night, then fade into the middle of the week. Due to the steep angle of approach, Pt. Conception, and the Channel Islands; this swell will only produce 1-2' occasional 3' sets late Monday and on Tuesday at the well exposed breaks of the region (again, mainly of South SD and southern Ventura). Expect this energy to mix in with the NW windswell. 

Going further out, a more promising looking scenario is now developing, thanks to a storm pulling together in the West Pacific which is expected to steadily track eastward over the next few days. If this storm lives up to forecast, we’ll see a fun size NW swell (290-300) for Sunday and into early Monday the 13th-14th. We’ll have more details on this potential swell as we see the storm develop further, so look for more concrete details a little later this week. 

TROPICS: Tropical Depression 15 is a small storm currently located located about 1200 miles WSW of the Baja tip. While TD 15 is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm sometime tonight, due to his limited size, location and track does not look like a swell maker for us. Stay posted on the tropics by checking out HURRICANETRAK. 

SOUTH PACIFIC SWELL/SURF ACTIVITY: Throughout the work-week, we'll see a slow but gradual increase of Southern Hemi energy. Also, the swell angle will gradually shift from SW (210-230) to SSW (190-210). Monday was quite slow, with inconsistent 1-2' sets across the southerly exposures. By Tuesday, the better breaks of Orange County begin to see occasional 3' sets. 

Then Wed/Thurs will offer the most size from this little swell with knee-waist high surf at the well exposed spots. Select standout spots (mainly of OC and a few locations in SD) pick up larger waves around chest high. This swell will then fade Friday and over the upcoming weekend. 

Further out; a large storm recently moved out from under New Zealand and pushed out a shadowed SW groundswell (200-220) that lines up for around Sept 13th-16th. The fetch was never impressive for CA, and the swell energy that was pushed out will be filtered by the islands of the South Pacific. Therefore, we'll stay rather conservative on this one for now as its looking inconsistent and small-scale. Stay posted as we continue to track this swell. Beyond that; models indicate that a complex storm may develop deep in the SPAC and due south over Tues-Wed that may send up a better SSW pulse for around Sept 18th-20th. 


Our next forecast update here will be Tuesday afternoon at 5 PM.

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